July 2025 Market Trends Report
On the surface, the labor market held firm in June, surpassing economists’ expectations yet again, with strong job gains and softening unemployment, which dropped to 4.1%.
Employers added 147,000 jobs last month, continuing a steady run of hiring to close out the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Employment Situation Summary.
Another repeating trend of the 2025 jobs reports is the highly concentrated nature of employment growth. Healthcare, social assistance and state/local government employers accounted for the majority of job gains in June.
Comparatively, growth in the private sector was rather weak, and most job seekers feel the economy is a barrier to achieving their career goals.
Some economists anticipate an unemployment boom if private sector employment shows weakness in Q3. But for now, there’s steady demand for labor, which should keep the job market and unemployment rates anchored in the coming months.
Jobs Market Overview: June 2025
4.1%
Overall unemployment rate
Unemployment remained historically low through June.
147k
Jobs added
The job market remains resilient despite ongoing pressure, yet growth was highly concentrated across a few industries.
62.3%
Labor force participation rate (LFPR)
The LFPR slightly dropped from 62.4% last month and from an annual high of 62.6% in January.
Industry Employment Trends
OVERALL ECONOMY
+147k
Monthly job change
(+1,809,000 year over year)
| Industry | Monthly Job Change | YOY Difference |
| Manufacturing | -7k | -89k |
| Automotive | -0.5k | -26.6k |
| Warehousing & Storage | +2.4k | -15.2k |
| Architectural & Engineering | +2.7k | +43.7k |
| Construction | +15k | +121k |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Economic News Release
Warehousing & Storage Outlook
"The warehousing and distribution industries are poised for an unpredictable second half of 2025. Supply chain disruptions are ongoing, while the marketplace demands products more quickly. Employee turnover and declining labor force participation in the industry complicate market tensions, making it difficult for companies to hire and retain workers.
Employers should focus on efficient application processes that will appeal to the workers they need. They can also respond with agility to market demand by adopting a strong contingent workforce model, providing greater access to talent, and greater workforce flexibility as the market shifts."
Tim Callaghan
Director & Divisional Lead — Distribution & Logistics
Sector-by-Sector News: June 2025
Warehousing & Storage Jobs Report
Warehousing & Storage Monthly Employment Change: +2,400 jobs
June Logistics Managers’ Index: 60.7*
*A reading above 50 indicates expanding logistics.
The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) has remained below 60 since July 2022. In 2025, it breached that threshold three times due to expanding inventory levels from trade tensions.
Through the first half of 2025, warehousing companies responded to market uncertainty with tariff-related stockpiling (i.e., swelling inventory levels and diminished warehousing capacity) while leveling off hiring rates.
In June, expanding inventory levels continued to drive LMI growth alongside modest hiring (+2,400 jobs since May) thanks to a pause in tariff measures at the beginning of the month.
Tariff anxieties and global trade tensions continue to dominate the broader market, prompting warehouses to focus on agility and rethink hiring strategies.
To stay ahead of unpredictable inventory swings, flexible labor models are gaining traction, helping warehouses navigate economic uncertainty and talent shortages.
Construction Jobs Report
Construction Monthly Employment Change: +15,000 jobs
Construction firms elevated hiring rates in June, adding 15,000 jobs month over month and 121,00 jobs year over year (compared to 4,000 jobs in May). All job gains were concentrated in the specialty trades, and minimal losses spread across all other residential and nonresidential sectors.
Month-over-month job changes:
Nonresidential:
- Building: -400 jobs
- Heavy and civil engineering: -2,800 jobs
- Specialty trade contractors: +12,400 jobs
Residential:
- Building: -500 jobs
- Specialty trade contractors: +18,400 jobs
Seasonal demand and public-sector investments are driving historically low unemployment (down to 3.4% in June and from an annual high of 7.2% in February). However, backlogs are dwindling as businesses postpone projects in an uncertain economic environment.
“At the same time, construction material prices have begun to edge higher, in part because of substantial tariffs on steel [and] aluminum [from] Canada, Mexico and China,” Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu reported.
“All things equal, that will drive up construction delivery costs, render more projects uneconomical and diminish contractor margins.”
For now, construction hiring continues to rev at a faster pace than the broader economy, but some firms are concerned that surging prices could restrict contractor operations in the coming months.
Manufacturing Jobs Report
Manufacturing Monthly Employment Change: -7,000 jobs
June Manufacturing PMI: 49%
*A PMI below 50% suggests economic activity is expanding.
Manufacturing employment decreased again in June (-7,000 jobs), and the Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 48.5% in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
While production escalated, companies are reticent to hire amid mixed demand indicators. The industry has lost 89,000 jobs year over year, and the PMI has been in a state of contraction for the past four months and for 30 of the past 32 months.
The industry continues to move in the opposite direction of the overall economy, which has registered growth for the past 62 months (after one month of contraction in April 2020).
The ISM’s report highlights ongoing economic headwinds, with companies adjusting production plans and continuing destaffing efforts.
Manufacturing industries that reported growth in June include:
- Apparel, Leather & Allied Products
- Petroleum & Coal Products
- Nonmetallic Mineral Products
- Miscellaneous Manufacturing
- Furniture & Related Products
- Computer & Electronic Products
- Machinery
- Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products
- Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components
Manufacturing industries that contracted in June include:
- Textile Mills
- Wood Products
- Paper Products
- Chemical Products
- Transportation Equipment
- Fabricated Metal Products